This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a
presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible
recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will
happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result,
taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities
in the industry when it comes to
mortgage rates,
home sales, and
home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Mortgage Rates
Projections from the experts at the
National Association of Realtors (NAR), the
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA),
Fannie Mae, and
Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:

Since rates have remained under 5% for the last decade, we may not fully realize the opportunity we have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
- 1970s: 8.86%
- 1980s: 12.70%
- 1990s: 8.12%
- 2000s: 6.29%
Home Sales
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase
in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number
remaining stable:

With
mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a
challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the
increase in sales.
Home Prices
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values:
CoreLogic,
Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s
“Z Report”, the
National Association of Realtors (NAR),
Freddie Mac, and the
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Each
group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of
them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did
in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a
recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential
home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year.
The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that
has caused many to rethink the possibility.
For example,
Goldman Sachs, in their
2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and
the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next
year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20%
probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual
late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do
not look threatening.”
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to
increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory,
prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending
recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year
for the real estate market.