The 2020 Real Estate Projections That May Surprise You

This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.

Mortgage Rates

Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:Since rates have remained under 5% for the last decade, we may not fully realize the opportunity we have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:

• 1970s: 8.86%
• 1980s: 12.70%
• 1990s: 8.12%
• 2000s: 6.29%

Home Sales

Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.

Home Prices

Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.

Is a Recession Possible?

In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
For example, Goldman Sachs, in their 2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:

“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.

The Impact Staging Your Home Has On Your Sale Price

Some Highlights:

• The National Association of Realtors surveyed their members & released the findings of their Profile of Home Staging.
• 62% of seller’s agents say that staging a home decreases the amount of time a home spends on the market.
• 50% of staged homes saw a 1-10% increase in dollar-value offers from buyers.
• 77% of buyer’s agents said staging made it easier for buyers to visualize the home as their own.
• The top rooms to stage in order to attract more buyers are the living room, master bedroom, kitchen, and dining room.

2019 Colors of the Year

It’s that fun time of the year where us paint color geeks look forward to the paint manufacturers announcing their annual “Colors of the Year”.  Most of the manufacturers have announced their colors in the last couple of weeks and today I’m excited to share the 2019 Colors of the Year with you from Sherwin Williams, BEHR, Ace’s Clark + Kensington, PPG and Dutch Boy.

Nothing warms me more than your referrals!

Together, let's evaluate your options!

For Sale By Owner vs. Realtor

For Sale By Owner vs. Realtor

When you weigh the pros and cons, you can see that you come out better when you use a professional Realtor to sell your home. timgrissett.com

Home Mortgages: Rates Up, Requirements Easing

The media has extensively covered the rise in mortgage interest rates since last fall (from 3.42% last September to the current 4.1% according to Freddie Mac). However, a less covered aspect of the mortgage market is that requirements to get a mortgage have eased while rates have risen. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) quantifies the availability of mortgage credit each month with their Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to the MBA, the MCAI is:

“A summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”

The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. Here is a chart showing the MCAI over the last several months as rates have increased.

Have requirements for attaining a mortgage actually eased?

Yes. Here are two examples:

1. FICO® Score – the credit score which helps determine a buyer’s eligibility. The score required to attain a mortgage has been falling over the last five months:

2. Down Payment Requirement – the percentage of the purchase price necessary to place as a down payment on a home. To make this point, let’s look at the percentage of first-time buyers who have put less than 5% down over the last several years as compared to the 1^st quarter of 2017:

Bottom Line

Whether you are a current homeowner looking to move to a home that will better serve your family’s current needs, or a first-time buyer looking for a starter home, it is easier to get a mortgage today than it has been at any other time in the last ten years.

Top 10 Overlooked Questions To Ask When Buying A Home

Buying a home can be overwhelming. So many things to know and so many questions to ask. Check out our list of Top 10 Overlooked Questions to Ask When Buying a Home-- they might come in handy! Call me if you still have questions!

Why You Should Never Skip A Home Inspection

Before you buy a home, one of the things you should do is to have the home checked out by a professional home inspector. When you are purchasing a home, you want to know every strength and weakness your new home has. Having this information before you close is paramount for negotiations as well as maintaining your new home for the long term. Comprehensive residential inspections cover moisture, mold, attic, termite, structural, roofing, insulation, plumbing systems, heating and cooling systems, electrical wiring and electrical systems inspections. Never skip a home inspection.

Top 5 Reasons You Should Not For Sale By Owner

In today's market, with home prices rising and a lack of inventory, some homeowners may consider trying to sell their home on their own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). There are several reasons why this might not be a good idea for the vast majority of sellers. Here are the top five reasons:

1. Exposure to Prospective Buyers

Recent studies have shown that 94% of buyers search online for a home. That is in comparison to only 17% looking at print newspaper ads. Most real estate agents have an internet strategy to promote the sale of your home. Do you?

2. Results Come from the Internet

Where did buyers find the home they actually purchased?

• 51% on the internet
• 34% from a Real Estate Agent
• 9% from a yard sign
• 1% from newspapers

The days of selling your house by just putting up a sign and putting it in the paper are long gone. Having a strong internet strategy is crucial.

3. There Are Too Many People to Negotiate With

Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate if you decide to For Sale By Owner:

• The buyer who wants the best deal possible
• The buyer's agent who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
• The buyer's attorney (in some parts of the country)
• The home inspection companies, which work for the buyer and will almost always find some problems with the house
• The appraiser if there is a question of value

4. FSBOing Has Become More And More Difficult

The paperwork involved in selling and buying a home has increased dramatically as industry disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. This is one of the reasons that the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 8% over the last 20+ years.

The 8% share represents the lowest recorded figure since NAR began collecting data in 1981.

5. You Net More Money When Using an Agent

Many homeowners believe that they will save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real estate agent's commission. The seller and buyer can't both save the commission. Studies have shown that the typical house sold by the homeowner sells for $185,000, while the typical house sold by an agent sells for $245,000. This doesn't mean that an agent can get $60,000 more for your home, as studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. However, it does show that selling on your own might not make sense.

Bottom Line

Before you decide to take on the challenges of selling your house on your own, sit with a real estate professional in your marketplace and see what they have to offer. 

When Is a Good Time to Rent? Not Now!

People often ask if now is a good time to buy a home. No one ever asks when a good time to rent is. However, we want to make certain that everyone understands that today is NOT a good time to rent. The Census Bureau recently released their third quarter median rent numbers. Here is a graph showing rent increases from 1988 until today:
As you can see, rents have steadily increased and are showing no signs of slowing down. If you are faced with the decision of whether you should renew your lease or not, you might be pleasantly surprised at your ability to buy a home of your own instead.

Bottom Line

One way to protect yourself from rising rents is to lock in your housing expense by buying a home. If you are ready and willing to buy, meet with a local real estate professional who can help determine if you are able to today!

Thinking of FSBO?

Using An Agent Can Net You $41K More

Getting ready to sell? Move your property fast – and for the highest price possible – with these affordable tricks. These easy changes will make your home more attractive to potential buyers, and you can start at any stage in the selling process. timgrissett.com

Real Estate Hidden Gems

Pricing a home is more art than science. Get beyond the standard information you can search online like square footage, bedrooms, bathrooms, year built, etc. Homebuyers should be on the lookout for some of these hidden gems that may be undervalued (or not even included) in the listing price.

How Long Do Families Stay in a Home?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) keeps historic data on many aspects of homeownership. One of the data points that has changed dramatically is the median tenure of a family in a home. As the graph below shows, for over twenty years (1985-2008), the median tenure averaged exactly six years. However, since 2008, that average is almost nine years - an increase of almost 50%.

Why the dramatic increase?

The reasons for this change are plentiful. The top two reasons are:

1. The fall in home prices during the housing crisis left many homeowners in a negative equity situation (where their home was worth less than the mortgage on the property).
2. The uncertainty of the economy made some homeowners much more fiscally conservative about making a move.

However, with home prices rising dramatically over the last several years, over 90% of homes with a mortgage are now in a positive equity situation with 70% of them having at least 20% equity. And, with the economy coming back and wages starting to increase, many homeowners are in a much better financial situation than they were just a few short years ago.

What does this mean for housing?

Many believe that a large portion of homeowners are not in a house that is best for their current family circumstances. They could be baby boomers living in an empty, four-bedroom colonial, or a millennial couple planning to start a family that currently lives in a one-bedroom condo. These homeowners are ready to make a move. Since the lack of housing inventory is a major challenge in the current housing market, this could be great news.

Buying a Home Can Be Scary... Know the Facts

Some Highlights: 36% of Americans think they need a 20% down payment to buy a home. 44% of Millennials who purchased a home this year have put down less than 10%. 8% of loan applications were approved last month. The average credit score of approved loans was 731 in September.

Real Estate Tip of the Day!

Real Estate Tip of the Day: Are you selling a home? Will a Buyer know the use of that room you're storing all the kids toys in?

Still a ways away from buying, but want to be responsible? No matter your timeline, these tips will help every aspiring homeowner get ready…

Buying is Now 37.7% Cheaper Than Renting in the US

The results of the latest Rent vs. Buy Report from Trulia show that homeownership remains cheaper than renting with a traditional 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the 100 largest metro areas in the United States. The updated numbers actually show that the range is an average of 17.4% less expensive in Honolulu (HI), all the way up to 53.2% less expensive in Miami & West Palm Beach (FL), and 37.7% nationwide!

Other interesting findings in the report include:

• Interest rates have remained low, and even though home prices have appreciated around the country, they haven't greatly outpaced rental appreciation.
• Home prices would have to appreciate by a range of over 23% in Honolulu (HI), up to over 45% in Ventura County (CA), to reach the tipping point of renting being less expensive than buying.
• Nationally, rates would have to reach 9.1%, a 145% increase over today's average of 3.7%, for renting to be cheaper than buying. Rates haven't been that high since January of 1995, according to Freddie Mac.

Bottom Line

Buying a home makes sense socially and financially. If you are one of the many renters out there who would like to evaluate your ability to buy this year, let's get together to help you find your dream home.

Dear Investors: Highly Recommended Reading

Demystify the process of evaluating, acquiring, and managing rental property and becoming a landlord with "Buy It, Rent It, Profit!: Make Money As a Landlord in Any Real Estate Market"